Peter Gleick: The Coming Crisis Over the Mekong — Unconstrained Development, Natural Droughts, and Climate Change

Peter Gleick for Circle of Blue

Asia: where pollution, massive population growth, serious overallocation and inefficient use of water, weak institutions, and exceedingly complex political relationships combine in a volatile mix.

There is an extensive history of conflict over water resources — I’ve written about this issue for a long time and the Pacific Institute maintains an online bibliography and a separate detailed chronology of water-related violence. I don’t subscribe to the idea of “water wars” — which are mostly a newspaper editor’s delight: short, pithy, eye-catching headlines. But I do believe that the risks of conflict over water — from the local to the international — are growing. Most of these conflicts will be diplomatic disputes, personal or community disagreements, or legal battles.

But some will be violent. Understanding the risks of such conflicts is the first step to reducing the chances that they will turn violent. While the Middle East has the longest history of water-related violence by far, my biggest worries today are elsewhere: in Asia, where pollution, massive population growth, serious overallocation and inefficient use of water, weak institutions, and exceedingly complex political relationships combine in a volatile mix.

One example is the Mekong River basin.


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ABOUT THE AUTHOR:

Dr. Peter Gleick is president of the Pacific Institute, an internationally recognized water expert and a MacArthur Fellow.

Mekong power plan will affect millions of lives : activists

By Pongphon Sarnsamak for The Nation

Civic groups, academics and environmental activists yesterday called for the Mekong River Commission (MRC) to revise its 10 year hydropower development plan on the river and its tributaries, saying the current plans would adversely affect millions of lives living downstream.

Representatives from Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam, Burma and China open a twoday MRC summit in Hua Hin today.

The MRC Secretariat’s chief executive officer, Jeremy Bird, said the Hua Hin summit would focus on regional cooperation issues and the record of cooperation over the past 15 years.

“They will use this anniversary as an opportunity to assess the achievements, to look at the challenges in the future from the water resources infrastructure and climate change, to reaffirm the commitment from four member countries for basin management cooperation,” he said.

Activists rebutted Bird’s optimism.

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Rethinking Agriculture in the Greater Mekong Subregion

How to sustainably meet food needs, enhance ecosystem services and cope with climate change

Nations of the Greater Mekong Subregion need to ‘rethink’ their agricultural industries to meet future food needs, given the social shifts and climate changes that are forecast for the coming decades.

With better farming practices, and by managing agriculture within the wider context of natural ecosystems, nations could boost production and increase the wealth and resilience of poor people in rural communities.

Demand for food is forecast to double by 2050, as populations swell and people’s dietary choices change. If governments act now, they will be better placed to meet this target and withstand the more severe climatic changes likely to affect the GMS beyond 2050.

These are the main messages of the summary report Rethinking Agriculture in the Greater Mekong Subregion: How to Sustainably Meet Food Needs, Enhance Ecosystem Services and Cope with Climate Change, published by IWMI in cooperation with the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (Sida) and the WorldFish Center.

Download Rethinking Agriculture in the Greater Mekong Subregion: How to Sustainably Meet Food Needs, Enhance Ecosystem Services and Cope with Climate Change here

Drought Threatens Mekong Crops

Radio Free Asia

Seawater encroaches farther into Vietnam’s river delta as river levels drop.

BANGKOK—Rice crops around Vietnam’s Mekong River Delta are suffering from a dangerous lack of freshwater, and an agriculture expert who blames climate change says the problem will likely worsen.

As drought spreads across Asia, the Mekong River has fallen to its lowest levels in decades and seawater is encroaching into the lower river’s Delta area, flooding fields with salt.

Pham Van Du, deputy director of the Department of Agricultural Cultivation in southern Vietnam’s Can Tho city, said that in recent years the encroaching saltwater has expanded in volume and the problem is likely to get worse as climate change becomes more severe.

“In my opinion, weather changes have made a clear impact. That is to say, the meteorological condition of the Lower Mekong has changed slightly,” he said.

“Drought has been severe, and water during the dry season has become even scarcer compared with previous years. As a result, saltwater has flowed into all parts of the Lower Mekong and the water has become from 3,000 to 4,000 parts saltier.”

This year, more than 100,000 hectares (nearly 250,000 acres) of rice, equivalent to 16 percent of the land used for Mekong Delta winter-spring rice harvests, is at risk of damage from saltwater encroachment.

Provincial officials have been tasked to estimate the extent of the damage.

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Australia, Germany declare ties in assistance to Vietnam

VOV News Vietnam

Germany and Australia signed a joint declaration on providing assistance to Vietnam’s environment and energy in Hanoi on March 8.

The declaration, inked by Germany’s Minister of Development and Cooperation (BMZ) Dirk Niebel and Deputy Director of the Australian International Development Agency (AusAID) Richars Moore, laid out specific targets of forming and implementing a joint financial programme that is in line with Vietnam’s national socio-economic development programme.

According to the document, support from the BMZ and AusAID will focus on helping Vietnam address environmental issues and climate change, such as improving coastal area management capacity, conservation of biological diversity, promotion of renewable energy and energy efficiency.

Earlier, Germany and Australia jointly conducted a project on protecting mangrove forest in the Mekong delta province of Kien Giang.

Minister of Planning and Investment Vo Hong Phuc said the coordination of the two foreign donors is expected to enhance the effectiveness of foreign-funded projects for the socio-economic development in Vietnam.

In the coming time, the model of coordinated projects between Germany and Australia will continue to be multiplied in other Mekong delta provinces and in other fields.

[Ed-Apols for full quote]

Source

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Severe water shortages likely this year

BREAKING NEWS from The Bangkok Post

This year’s dry season is expected to be more severe and last longer than usual,the chairman of the Foundation for National Disaster Warning System of Thailand (NDWST) Smith Dharmasaroja said on Friday.

Mr Smith said the effects would be felt nationwide. He attributed the water crisis to the significant drop in the water level of Mekong river, the return of the El Nino weather phenomenon and climate change.

“All provinces should allocate resources for storing more water during the dry season and seek ways to solve this problem in the long run, because the crisis will be more severe every year,” the former National Disaster Warning Centre director said.

Farmers in the drought-hit northeastern provinces such as Nong Khai were experiencing additional problems as paddy rats, rice lice and caterpillars were eating their crops.

Source

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New rice variety seeks recognition for climate change survival

Mekong Delta Rice Research Institute is seeking recognition for a new drought resistant variety of rice developed through its continuing research program.

The Institute has submitted documents and evidence to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development for an official recognition of drought resistance of the new OM6162 variety, which is on trial cultivation in the Mekong Delta area, head of the Institute, Dr Le Van Banh, said.

OM6162 is one of many new rice varieties that are capable of adapting themselves to climate change impacts, Mr. Banh said.

They can maintain steady growth in different disadvantageous conditions, like drought, flood and salt-affected soil, he explained.

To date, the Institute has created 31 rice varieties that can survive drought and 14 others that have high salt tolerance, he added.

OM6162 can be cultivated in many kind of soil, bringing in an average productivity of 4-5 tons of rice per hectare for the summer-autumn crop and 6-8 tons for the winter-spring season, according to the Dong Thap Agriculture Seed Center in Dong Thap Province.

Rice harvested from the variety has good quality that meets export standards, according to the center.

The variety has been cultivated broadly in many Mekong Delta provinces, such as Dong Thap, Tien Giang, Can Tho, Bac Lieu, Soc Trang, Hau Giang, Tra Vinh and Long An, the center said.

Source: SGGP, Dong Thap Agriculture Seed Center – Translated by Truc Thinh

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Climate Change Paints Mekong Dams ‘Green’

By Rosalia Sciortino for Mekong Currents

BANGKOK, Dec 31 (IPS Asia-Pacific) – As more severe and irregular floods occur in the countries of the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS), public discussion on their possible causes has been escalating. A point of contention is whether floods along the Mekong River and other regional rivers are related to the operation of dams in combination with ever-increasing deforestation and subsequent land erosion, or whether the increase in water volume is due to natural circumstances, eventually impacted by climate change.

Revival of Dams

The debate on human and nature-induced disasters is particularly timely because of the growing number of dams populating the Mekong River and other rivers in the GMS. A cascade of eight dams is being built in the Upper Mekong –Lancang River as the Chinese call it — and 11 more are planned on the Mekong’s River lower mainstream, not counting the dams and reservoirs on the river’s tributaries. Dams are also being built on the Irrawaddy and Salween rivers, and there are plans for hydropower projects on rivers flowing from the Cardamom Mountains and on the Xeset River.

Rosalia Sciortino, better known as Lia, is a cultural anthropologist and development sociologist associated with the Institute for Population and Social Research, Mahidol University. A native of Italy, she has gained extensive experience in international development in Southeast Asia working as Regional Director of the Rockefeller Foundation Office for Southeast Asia in Bangkok and with the Ford Foundation in Indonesia and the Philippines. She has lived in the region for almost two decades and published widely on development issues.

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Climate change shrinking the Mekong

From The Vientiane Times

Farmers who rely on the Mekong River to water their crops are expected to be affected by a drop in the river’s level this year as a result of climate change.

The level of the Mekong River this year is very low compared to previous years, according to a senior official at the Mekong River Commission Secretariat.

While the dramatic drop in water levels may be the result of other factors, climate change is suspected of being the main cause.

The official, who wished to remain anonymous, said the level of all five major tributaries flowing into the Mekong River in Laos is very low this year resulting in a low level in the Mekong .

“We predict that by April the level of the Mekong in the north may be so low that people will be able to walk across to the opposite riverbank,” the official said.

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Water shortage could spell doom in the south

Thanh Nien Daily in the delta

Groundwater levels have sunk 17 meters over a decade while much of the supply has been contaminated with arsenic.

The over-exploitation of groundwater will push the Mekong Delta and southeastern provinces into a critical water shortage over the next decade, experts have warned.

Scientists have also found high levels of arsenic in groundwater and evidence that the substance may be present in people using the water, posing a risk of neurological disturbances and death.

Duong Van Vien, a lecturer from the Water Resources University, said the groundwater level in the Mekong Delta would drop to “dead” levels by 2014 if no action was taken to tackle the problem.

“Groundwater levels are between 12 and 14 meters lower than they were 10 years ago, with the highest decrease of up to 17 meters in some places” said Tran Van Thanh, deputy director of the Soc Trang Province Department of Natural Resources and Environment.

Authorities in Bac Lieu Province have also reported a decrease of 14 meters and said hundreds of wells dried up every dry season.

Pham Khoi Nguyen, Minister of Natural Resources and Environment, has also warned of a serious water supply shortage.

“We often think water is an abundant gift from God,” he said during the ongoing National Assembly session. “But the country could suffer a water shortage soon due to impacts from the climate change as well as an increase in demand.”

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