Monthly Archives: January 2011

Cyclones to hit flood-weary Australia

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The Bangkok Post

Flood-shattered Australia braced for further downpours on Sunday as two tropical cyclones hammered toward the devastated northeast, threatening further misery for already submerged towns.

Tropical Cyclone Anthony was intensifying as it closed in on Queensland state, where it was expected to cross the coast between 10:00 pm Sunday and 4:00 am Monday near the northeastern city of Townsville, the weather bureau said.

Abnormally high tides were forecast along the coast along with intense rain and flooding to catchments already brimming from a deluge that destroyed vast areas of the state earlier this month, swamping tens of thousands of homes and killing 35 people.

“Destructive wind gusts are expected to develop about coastal and island communities close to the cyclone centre as it approaches the coast late tonight,” the bureau said.

Currently a category two, Anthony is expected to peak on Sunday evening and weaken as it makes landfall, with winds of up to 165 kilometres an hour (100 mph) and between 200 and 400 millimetres of rain.

A tropical low off Fiji was highly likely to develop into a cyclone in the next 24-48 hours according weather experts, with Australian officials warning it could reach category four strength by the time it hit Queensland on Thursday.

The last category four system to strike northeastern Australia, Severe Tropical Cyclone Larry, wrought almost Aus$1 billion in damage back in March 2006 and unleashed some of that region’s heaviest flooding in decades.

“Queensland continues to face the prospect of two very significant weather events in the next five days,” said Queensland premier Anna Bligh, urging residents in Anthony’s path to “batten down the hatches”.

The second system, which is yet to develop into a full-blown cyclone or be named, was a “very large” weather event which was likely to bring destructive winds and heavy rainfall, said Bligh.

“We are looking at not only a potentially damaging cyclone but more very heavy rainfall which … could fall into river catchments and cause further flooding beyond the cyclone,” she said.

It would be unwelcome news for the many thousands of Queensland residents still reeling from December’s Tropical Cyclone Tasha which unleashed flooding across an area larger than France and Germany combined.

“Yes, we have come through a very difficult time and our emergency resources have certainly been tested in the past couple of weeks,’ said Bligh.

“We are not battle weary we are battle ready.”

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First-Ever Global Map of Surface Permeability Informs Water Supply, Climate Modelling

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ScienceDaily

University of British Columbia researchers have produced the first map of the world outlining the ease of fluid flow through the planet’s porous surface rocks and sediments.

The maps and data, published January 21 in Geophysical Research Letters, could help improve water resource management and climate modelling, and eventually lead to new insights into a range of geological processes.

“This is the first global-scale picture of near-surface permeability, and is based on rock type data at greater depths than previous mapping,” says Tom Gleeson, a postdoctoral researcher with the Department of Earth and Ocean Sciences.

Using recent world-wide lithology (rock type) results from researchers at the University of Hamburg and Utrecht University in the Netherlands, Gleeson was able to map permeability across the globe to depths of approximately 100 metres. Typical permeability maps have only dealt with the top one to two metres of soil, and only across smaller areas.

“Climate models generally do not include groundwater or the sediments and rocks below shallow soils,” says Gleeson. “Using our permeability data and maps we can now evaluate sustainable groundwater resources as well as the impact of groundwater on past, current and future climate at the global scale.”

A better understanding of large scale permeability of rock and sediment is critical for water resource management-groundwater represents approximately 99 per cent of the fresh, unfrozen water on earth. Groundwater also feeds surface water bodies and moistens the root zone of terrestrial plants.

“This is really an example of mapping research from a new, modern era of cartography,” says Gleeson. “We’ve mapped the world, peering well below the surface, without ever leaving our offices.”

Detailed lithography map of North American map at a resolution of 75 kilometres squared

The study’s maps include a global map at a resolution of 13,000 kilometres squared, and a much more detailed North American map at a resolution of 75 kilometres squared.

The research also improves on previous permeability databases by compiling regional-scale hydrogeological models from a variety of settings instead of relying on permeability data from small areas.

The paper’s authors include UBC Professors Leslie Smith and Mark Jellinek, as well as researchers from the US Geological Survey in Denver, Colorado, the University of Hamburg, and Utrecht University.

The work was funded by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, the German Science Foundation, and Utrecht University.

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Brazil Green Lights Amazon Dam Disregarding Environmental Laws and Local Opposition

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International Rivers & Amazon Watch

New Dilma Government approves fast-track forest clearance and commencement of controversial Belo Monte construction site

Brasília, Brazil (January 27, 2011)—The Brazilian government has issued a “partial” installation license allowing the Belo Monte Dam Complex to break ground on the margins of the Amazon’s Xingu River despite egregious disregard for human rights and environmental legislation, the unwavering protests of civil society and condemnations by its Federal Public Prosecutor’s Office (MPF). The license was approved by Brazil’s environmental agency IBAMA despite overwhelming evidence that the dam-building consortium Norte Energia (NESA) has failed to comply with dozens of social and environmental conditions required for an installation license.



The “partial” installation license, non-existent under Brazilian environmental legislation, will allow for NESA to open access roads and initiate forest clearing at dam construction sites in an area of 2,118 acres. “The partial installation license granted by IBAMA is intended to transform Belo Monte, a notoriously illegal and catastrophic dam project and a huge waste of taxpayers’ money, into a fait accompli,” said Christian Poirier, Brazil Program Coordinator at Amazon Watch. 



The risky $17 billion Belo Monte Dam Complex will divert nearly the entire flow of the Xingu River along a 62-mile stretch. Its reservoirs will flood more than 100,000 acres of rainforest and local settlements, displace more than 40,000 people and generate vast quantities of methane—a greenhouse gas at least 25 times more potent than carbon dioxide. 



The decision follows the recent resignation of IBAMA’s president Abelardo Bayma, who allegedly departed amidst intense political pressures from the Ministry of Mines and Energy and President Dilma Rousseff. 



The consortium also benefited from a subsidized $640 million start-up loan from the Brazilian National Development Bank (BNDES) for equipment purchases before a partial installation license was issued, countering legal procedures. The bank has come under increasing scrutiny from the Public Prosecutor’s office and NGOs due to alarming evidence that approval is based on political grounds, often downplaying problems of economic viability and compliance with social and environmental safeguards.



According to Public Prosecutor Ubiratan Cazetta, “ IBAMA is putting the region at a high social and environmental risk by granting a license allowing installation of the construction site while not requiring compliance with legally-mandated safeguards. No effective preparations have been made to absorb the thousands of migrants who will be attracted to the region in search of employment in dam construction. We’re very concerned about what could happen here.”



Fierce opposition by local inhabitants to Belo Monte has not wavered. “For us, Belo Monte’s installation license is a sign of the government’s deepening authoritarianism, as it continues to steamroll over environmental legislation and human rights,” said Antônia Melo, a leader and spokeswoman for the Xingu Alive Forever Movement (MXVPS). “The government seeks to build this dam at any cost in order to benefit corporate interests at our expense. However, we will not stop fighting to preserve the Xingu, our national patrimony.”

MEDIA CONTACTS:

Christian Poirier, Amazon Watch, + 1 510 666 7565, [email protected]

Brent Millikan, International Rivers, + 55 61 8153 7009, [email protected] 

Renata Pinheiro, Movimento Xingu Vivo Para Sempre, +55 (93) 9172-9776 [email protected]

Hedge Fund Guy’s New Best Friend Is Wet, Wet, Wet: Davos Diary

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Bloomberg Opinion By Mark Gilbert

Water is set to become hedge-fund guy’s new best friend forever. For H2O, unfortunately, the financier is likely to turn out to be what teenage girls and Hollywood gossip columnists call a frenemy.

Every time I mention the wet stuff in a Bloomberg article, at least a couple of e-mails appear from people wondering if I know of any way to “invest” in aqua. Trust me, they’re not asking out of concern for the welfare of the people of Jordan, the world’s fourth-poorest country as measured by water availability, according to Imad Fakhoury, the nation’s minister of state for grand projects.

More than 100 executives, including national presidents, gathered at the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland, yesterday to discuss water. There are enough hedge-fund hangers-on at the conference to suspect that at least some wangled an invite.

“Water is going to shape the path of economic growth in the countries in which we work,” says Rachel Kyte, a vice- president at the International Finance Corp., the World Bank’s private-investment arm. The IFC is embarked on “a data-driven exercise which can put investable propositions in front of private-sector leaders.”

Uh-oh. Does anyone else feel the hairs on the back of their neck start to tingle at the thought of the world of finance getting its mucky paws on the world’s most basic resource and inventing newfangled ways to speculate on Adam’s ale?

Empty Breakfast Bowls

“Water scarcity is having its impact already today in food prices,” says Peter Brabeck-Letmathe. The chairman of Nestle SA, the world’s largest food company, knows a thing or three about crops, and he’s worried. “By 2030, 30 percent of cereal production goes if we carry on at current water-usage rates. Politicians want 20 percent of energy to come from biofuels; we would have to triple food production to get there.”

Can you connect the dots between the finance industry’s thirst for derivatives that bet on the price of water, and global food production, and bread riots? I can.

Investors already bet on the outlook for the water industry, buying shares in water companies, or exchange-traded funds that invest in several companies at once. Now, the same gang that brought you the global credit crisis is itching to flex its financial-engineering skills to collateralize irrigation projects and write swaps on desalination initiatives. If you can buy and sell electricity and carbon, why not water?

Geopolitical Conflict

“A rapidly rising global population and growing prosperity are putting unsustainable pressures on resources,” the WEF said in its 2011 report on global risks. “Demand for water, food and energy is expected to rise by 30 to 50 percent in the next two decades, while economic disparities incentivize short-term responses in production and consumption that undermine long-term sustainability. Shortages could cause social and political instability, geopolitical conflict and irreparable environmental damage.”

I asked Kyte of the IFC whether she was concerned about speculators getting involved in the nascent water industry. Her response didn’t exactly fill me with confidence.

“We see increased interest across the full spectrum of financiers, from commercial banks to private equity,” she replied. “There are the normal barriers to investment: country risk, foreign exchange risk, technology risk. Most investors need instruments and intermediation to get into the business. So we have to provide tools, finding ways to share risk to get private finance involved.”

1,000 Years

Lee McIntire, chairman and chief executive officer of CH2M HILL Cos., a consulting and engineering firm based in Englewood, Colorado, reckons we know a lot about global energy supplies and almost zero about what and where our water resources are. “Aquifers take about 1,000 years to fill and 50 years to drain,” he says. In the future, “we’re probably going to have to pay for water.”

And you know as well as I do that whenever there’s a hot commodity in demand, the money crowd will find a way to ride that horse all the way to the bank.

Mark Gilbert, author of “Complicit: How Greed and Collusion Made the Credit Crisis Unstoppable,” is the London bureau chief and a Bloomberg News columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

To contact the writer of this column: Mark Gilbert in London at [email protected]

Pakistan flood crisis as bad as African famines, UN says

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Declan Walsh in Islamabad for The Guardian

Survey shows almost a quarter of children under five are malnourished in Sindh province, six months after floods

A “humanitarian crisis of epic proportions” is unfolding in flood-hit areas of southern Pakistan where malnutrition rates rival those of African countries affected by famine, according to the United Nations.

In Sindh province, where some villages are still under water six months after the floods, almost one quarter of children under five are malnourished while 6% are severely underfed, a Floods Assessment Needs survey has found.

“I haven’t seen malnutrition this bad since the worst of the famine in Ethiopia, Darfur and Chad. It’s shockingly bad,” said Karen Allen, deputy head of Unicef in Pakistan.

The survey reflects the continuing impact of the massive August floods, which affected 20 million people across an area the size of England, sweeping away 2.2m hectares of farmland.

The figures were alarming, Neva Khan, of Oxfam, said.

“Emergency aid right after the floods saved many lives, but, as these figures show, millions are at serious risk,” she said.

Kristen Elsby, a Unicef official, called it a “humanitarian crisis of epic proportions”.

But the figures highlight a broader truth: that Sindh, a ragged province where poor peasants toil under powerful landlords, has long had some of the worst poverty levels in South Asia.

“This sort of thing doesn’t happen overnight. It indicates deep, slow-grinding poverty,” said Dorothy Blane, of Concern.

The most recent nutrition survey across Pakistan in 2002 found a national malnutrition rate of 13.2%. The survey of 786 households, jointly carried out by the UN, aid agencies and the government, recorded global malnutrition rates of 23.1% in northern Sindh and 21.2% in the southern part of the province.

The survey was done in early November but Pakistan’s government, reluctant to publish the figures, delayed their publication, according to several aid officials. Figures for southern Punjab, which was also badly hit, have yet to be finalised.

Sindh is Pakistan’s third largest province and home to some of the country’s deepest inequalities. Karachi is a bustling business hub of more than 16 million people. But in the countryside, feudal traditions are strong, illiteracy is rife and government services are often non-existent.

Health workers in refugee camps hosting flood victims from rural Sindh reported that some expectant mothers had never seen a doctor.

Across Pakistan, most of the 14 million people who fled their homes in August are rebuilding their lives. According to the UNHCR some 166,000 people are living in 240 camps and roadside settlements, down from 3.3 million in October.

Much western aid has been pumped into a scheme to give flood victims direct financial aid, starting with a payment of £150. Some aid workers say it is prone to corruption.

The UK donated £114m which funded shelter for 1.3 million people and clean water for 2.5 million.

But more money is urgently needed. A UN appeal for $2bn to help people survive until this summer has only 56% of the funding.

Before the floods the western aid effort in Pakistan focused on the north-west, where an earthquake struck in 2005 and military operations against the Taliban have displaced millions.

After the floods, aid workers admit to being caught offguard by the problem in Sindh. “It was a real wake-up call,” said one.

Some villages in northern Sindh remain under water, and where the water has cleared, irrigation systems lie destroyed, raising concerns for the next harvest this summer.

And some things will take more than food or shelter to solve. A majority of children in flood-affected areas suffer from anxiety, depression and phobias, according to a study by Save the Children.

Of the children surveyed, 70% expressed fear of “people, water, open places and darkness”, it found.

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