The Irrawaddy

Apparently in response to a mounting public outcry, Burmese President Thein Sein decided to suspend work on the controversial Myitsone Dam project in Kachin State, which critics say threatens the Irrawaddy River, Burma’s lifeline and center of its cultural heritage.

“Save the Irrawaddy” campaign groups inside and outside of Burma, together with the people of Kachin State, opposed the US $3.6 billion project, expressing concern that construction of the massive dam will have huge negative consequences, including a devastating impact on the environment, local communities and the millions of people whose livelihoods are linked to Burma’s longest waterway.

Reportedly taking these concerns into account, Burma’s President Thein Sein sent a letter to Parliament on Friday saying that he decided to suspend the project.

“He said that his government, being born out of the people’s desire, has to act according to the desire of the people,” said a Burmese official, who declined to be named because he was not authorized to speak to the media.

Most Burmese immediately welcomed the news of the bold move and social networks inside and outside of Burma began to share the president’s decision. It is also interesting to note that the threat the Myitsone Dam poses to the Irrawaddy River is one of the issues that pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi is said to have discussed with the government’s liaison, Minister of Labor Aung Kyi, during their meetings in July and August.

However, there is sure to be a backlash resulting from Thein Sein’s decision. In particular, it is too early to say what implication the government’s suspension of Myitsone Dam construction will have on its relationship with China, since Burma’s giant neighbor has already made heavy investments in the project.

In addition, the Myitsone Dam was but one of several mega-projects that China and Burma are jointly undertaking. There are six more hydropower dams being constructed, as well as crude oil and natural gas pipelines linking Burma’s Arakan coast with China’s southwestern city of Kunming, via Shan State. The gas pipeline will transport natural gas from Burma’s lucrative offshore site, known as the Shwe project, to refineries in China. Along with these projects, China and Burma will establish a railway link as well as a trade and transportation corridor connecting China with the Indian Ocean.

As a result of all these projects, which collectively threaten to hand over control of Burma’s most valuable natural resources to China, many in Burma have expressed frustration that their country is beginning to feel like a Chinese province and there has been a steady rise of anti-China sentiment.

With the Burmese public expressing dual outrage over the imminent threat to their beloved Irrawaddy River and the increased dominance of China, some pundits are now questioning whether the Thein Sein government made the decision to suspend Myitsone Dam construction in order to prevent any major political event in Burma just at the time they were trying to project an image of reform and stability to the outside world.

The last thing the generals and ex-generals want to see right now are mass public protests, which would force them to either go against their authoritarian grain and allow the protests to take place, setting a precedent for the future, or show their true colors and crack down as they have in the past.

In any event, the Irrawaddy River has been saved, at least for now, and the Burmese people are no doubt thankful for the president’s decision. But they should also give themselves a pat on the back, because without the public outcry and threat of even larger protests, the construction workers would still be pouring concrete into the source of the Irrawaddy.

However, important questions still remain. For starters: Will the government pay equal attention to the social and environmental concerns raised by the other China-Burma mega-projects? Will the current suspension survive the pressure from Chinese and Burmese vested interests that is sure to follow? Will Thein Sein even politically survive such pressure?

It is time to celebrate for a moment, but it is not time to relax. This is the beginning, not the end, of the struggle for real reform in Burma.

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